The competitiveness of a bid—and even the rate at which a business grows—is often limited not by capability, but by cognitive bias. In an environment where margins are tight and every advantage counts, blind spots in decision-making can cost companies millions. Winning strategies are not just about having the best solution but about anticipating and neutralising the unseen obstacles that can lead to failure.
Cognitive biases shape bid decisions in ways that are often invisible to those making them. Overconfidence bias can lead teams to assume their bid is stronger than it is. Groupthink stifles dissent and suppresses alternative strategies. Confirmation bias causes teams to selectively interpret data to fit pre-existing conclusions rather than adapt to evolving realities. The result? Missed opportunities, misallocated resources, and an inflated sense of competitiveness that collapses when confronted with a real competitor.
These biases have been costly in real-world scenarios. In major government contracting, companies have lost billions through misjudging competitor moves, failing to align with customer priorities, or underestimating price sensitivity. The aerospace sector has seen ambitious projects fail due to overconfidence in delivery timelines. Even the financial crash of 2008 was, in part, a result of systemic cognitive bias—markets ignored warning signs because they had convinced themselves of their own invincibility.
Enter the Pre-Mortem: A Tool for Eliminating Bias and Unlocking Competitive Advantage
A pre-mortem—deliberately envisioning failure before a bid is even submitted—is a strategic tool for neutralising cognitive bias and unlocking a more agile, competitive bid strategy. Rather than assuming success and planning from that assumption, a pre-mortem forces teams to imagine that they have already lost the bid—and to work backwards from that point to determine why.
This shift in perspective exposes hidden weaknesses, flawed assumptions, and blind spots that would otherwise go unchallenged. It forces teams to actively counteract their biases, leading to sharper strategies, clearer differentiators, and better risk mitigation. Just as **Stoic philosophy’s **premeditatio malorum teaches us to anticipate adversity to build resilience, pre-mortems in competitive bidding are a strategic advantage.
In a world where the ability to adapt faster than the competition is the key to winning, pre-mortems provide the ultimate competitive edge—one that separates market leaders from those left wondering why they lost.
Stoic Origins: Premeditatio Malorum and the Art of Strategic Resilience
The concept of premeditatio malorum (Latin for “the premeditation of evils”) was central to the teachings of Seneca, Epictetus, and Marcus Aurelius. Rather than fearing failure, they advocated visualising obstacles before they happen to build mental preparedness, adaptability, and resilience.
Seneca: Foreseeing Obstacles to Counter Overconfidence Bias
Seneca advised his followers to mentally rehearse misfortunes before they happened. In Letters to Lucilius, he wrote:
“It is in times of security that the spirit should be preparing itself for difficult times; while fortune is bestowing favours, it is then the time to be strengthened against her rebuffs.”
In bidding, overconfidence bias is a frequent pitfall. Teams often assume their win themes, pricing, and relationships are strong enough to secure victory, without considering why they might fail. A pre-mortem forces teams to confront uncomfortable truths—where their pricing may not be competitive, where their value proposition is weak, or where a competitor has a more compelling relationship with the buyer.
By imagining a scenario where the bid is lost, teams reverse-engineer success, proactively addressing potential weaknesses rather than reacting too late.
Epictetus: Controlling What We Can, Preparing for What We Can’t
Epictetus, a former slave turned philosopher, focused on the dichotomy of control—understanding what is within our power and what is not. He urged people to anticipate external risks while perfecting their own response to them.
“It is not what happens to you, but how you react to it that matters.”
In bidding, anchoring bias—fixating on initial information and failing to adjust—can be fatal. Teams often assume early intelligence or customer feedback is fixed, failing to recognise how market conditions, competitor strategies, and customer needs shift over time.
A pre-mortem helps combat this by forcing teams to ask:
- What if the customer’s priorities change?
- What if our key differentiators are neutralised by a competitor?
- What if our intelligence is outdated?
By acknowledging the fluid nature of competitive landscapes, teams develop more adaptable strategies, ensuring they are prepared for multiple scenarios—not just the one they hope for.
Enable’s Experience: Pre-Mortems in Business-Winning
At Enable, we use advanced pre-mortem techniques to systematically identify potential failures based on data from hundreds of bids across multiple industries. Our approach does not rely on guesswork—it is grounded in a deep understanding of the common pitfalls, biases, and strategic weaknesses that have historically led to bid losses.
By simulating real-world failure scenarios, we pinpoint the specific biases, assumptions, and misunderstandings that are limiting our clients’ competitiveness. We then work backwards to correct those flaws before they become costly mistakes. This includes:
- Challenging pricing strategies to ensure competitiveness without eroding margin.
- Testing differentiators against real competitor strategies to expose weaknesses.
- Identifying blind spots in customer engagement that could lead to misalignment.
- Assessing team dynamics to prevent groupthink from distorting bid strategy.
Through these techniques, our clients move beyond reactive bidding and develop truly agile, adaptable win strategies. This structured approach has been central to our work in strategic capture reviews, win strategy refinements, and competitive positioning initiatives, leading to win rate increases of around 30%.
The ability to step outside of internal assumptions and critically evaluate risks is what separates average bidding teams from market leaders.
Pre-Mortem: A Competitive Advantage, Not a Negative Exercise
voiding cognitive bias in bidding isn’t just about recognising past failures—it’s about proactively ensuring your team has the best chance of success. Enable has helped businesses refine their bid strategies, eliminate blind spots, and improve their win rates through structured pre-mortem thinking.
If you’re ready to take your bidding strategy to the next level and gain a competitive edge, reach out to us today. Let’s ensure your next bid is built for success from the start.
Contact Enable to discuss how pre-mortems can transform your approach to competitive bidding. They are a key part of our Capture service.
Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first and then seek to win.” – Sun Tzu
Winning isn’t just about what you do right. It’s about what you avoid getting wrong.