For decades, capture teams have clung to PWin as the go-to metric for judging pursuit health. A neat percentage in a bid review feels comforting — 60%, 80%, even 90%. But does it actually mean anything? Our new article argues it doesn’t. In fact, PWin can act as a psychological safety blanket that masks real competitive risks.
Instead, we call for a sharper focus on Competitive Position: a clear, external view of where your team stands against rivals. Are you the incumbent in pole position, a genuine P1 or P2 contender, or stuck in the midfield hoping for chaos? The difference is crucial — in Formula One and in capture management.
What You’ll Learn in the Article
- The real origins of PWin — from 1950s academic theory and later sales forecasting, not from capture strategy.
- The biases it enables — sunk cost fallacy, gambler’s fallacy, and overconfidence all inflate PWin numbers.
- Why bidder comparison matrices don’t save you — they often reinforce groupthink instead of challenging it.
- How Competitive Position works — an honest, external measure that forces teams to ask who they need to beat.
- Why Formula One is the better analogy — grid position, track type, and pit wall strategy matter more than subjective indicators.
Why This Article Is Different
This isn’t another safe piece of BD jargon. It’s a blunt critique of bad habits, written in a human, strategic voice — and it’s designed to spark debate among capture leaders.
And here’s the first for us: this article is also available as a podcast episode, recorded to bring the ideas to life in conversation. You’ll find the podcast player embedded right on the article page, making it easy to read or listen however you prefer.
Why You Should Read (or Listen) Now
If you’re a Managing Director, Sales Director, or Capture Lead, you’ll recognise the scenarios. The inflated PWin numbers in pipeline reviews. The false comfort of colour-coded matrices. The late-night debates about whether to keep chasing.
This piece cuts through that noise and offers a sharper way forward: focusing on Competitive Position and data-driven strategy.
👉 Read and listen to the full article now — and join the conversation about why it’s time to drop PWin for good.